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Anthony Wolfenden

1 week ago

From my contact @ Morgans:

Whats happened: The rally over the last two days has been a quite a surprise rallying over 200 points on the index with massive gains in stocks like Flight centre and web jet and continuations in the Tech stock frenzy, today even the banks starting.

But Analyst Notes:

1) there has never been a vaccine for any of the previous 18 COVID-19 types;
2) there has never been a pandemic without a second wave before a treatment existed.

Past recoveries- the past three decades of recoveries after a crisis, we see the last three recoveries have been weaker, with less productivity, a lower rise in real wages, and poorer investment growth than the previous three. The 2008 recovery was L-shaped, where some economic areas, like the eurozone, did not see something resembling a full recovery until 2016.

It is true, this crisis is different than the previous ones, with a supply shock followed by the forced shutdown of the entire economy by government decree...but this is what makes the recovery more challenging as the shock to consumers has been enormous, and most may not decide to return to the previous levels of spending even if their job comes back.

Economists have noted that it takes around 22 days to shut down an economy almost entirely and between four and ten times that time to get it back on track, with time needed for jobs to recover in areas such as the services sector, which has been hit with ~75% of total job losses and likely weak response from consumers. ... See MoreSee Less

Anthony Wolfenden

2 weeks ago

[From Morningstar via AAP]: The three major averages on Wall Street notched their fourth gain in five sessions on Wednesday as investors again bet on a swift economic recovery from coronavirus-driven lockdowns and the potential for more stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve ... See MoreSee Less